Help the Economy Take Off
I want to start off by saying this piece is not meant to make light of the pandemic we are in or the risk this disease could have on anybody, especially those with preexisting conditions as defined by the CDC. About 185K Americans have had their deaths classified as caused by COVID and that is not a lightly taken statistic by this author. Also if anyone spent time watching either of the recent political conventions, while both sides disagree on path forward, I didn’t hear anyone argue that this disease is not real and should not be taken seriously.
Having said that, I don’t think anyone can argue after 5 months of watching TV, going to the store, talking with family/friends, there is a faction of people who, while following CDC & State guidelines, feel more comfortable interacting with others and taking full advantage of what the country has opened up in recent months. Then there are some that rightfully so, are concerned that their risk of having serious complications is high, and choose to be much more cautious during this time. As of the writing on this blog, the US daily positive tests peaked on July 24 at 78,586. Recently they have hovered in the mid 40K’s in recent weeks. For reference they were hovering in the 25K per day range throughout March — June when most of America was under quarantine. Experts made it clear that opening things up would lead to increasing cases, which it clearly did, and started in Mid-June with the initial opening plans in many states, with the peak in July.
I have no idea what % of Americans fit into this comfort group. Using a bad sample admittedly, I helped out locally in my town with Grades K-1 and Grades 4–6 when softball was able to start playing. I would say about 60% of parents allowed their kids to participate. With it being summer, I don’t know if all 40% of the parents who didn’t have their kids participate relate directly to COVID, but based on feedback, I know some did. I also know softball is an outdoor, mostly contactless activity, so again, maybe not the perfect sample.
For this discussion, let’s just throw the comfort number out at 60% and for the remainder of this article I am speaking only to those in this category of which I admit, I am one of, and particularly those with families. My question is, since many of us can work from anywhere, likely didn’t take any vacation from March — June/July and flights are the cheapest in my Adult lifetime, why is so few people flying.
Being in the middle of my second plane vacation since mid-May, I thought I would look at some numbers. In 2019, about 2.5 million people passed through TSA check points each day. In 2020, that number is down to about 700K per day, less than 30% of the volume from just 1 year ago. I use August as I know business travel is probably near 0, but August seems like a good month to measure since many are taking vacation and business travel is light usually in the summer versus other times of year. One other point, my wife and I planned to go to Las Vegas this summer and purchased plane tickets back in January. For many reasons we couldn’t keep that trip, but for the equivalent of those 2 tickets, we got 5 tickets to Denver for my family plus $200 in spending money. On the plane, we take up a whole row, most airlines are not selling middle seats, you can get to their airport 30–45 minutes before your flight as we were literally the only ones in TSA Pre-Check and many people are very spread out. Airlines and airports are taking some of the most stringent levels of caution versus many other activities I have seen.
Look, I know we have a pandemic going on and as I stated, it should not be taking lightly. I know living in Mass I need to get tested within 72 hours of my return not to break to governor’s mandate, which we have scheduled. I realize many people, up to 20 million got furloughed/laid off, so I am not saying I expect travel to be 100% of prior year, as there is still a cost, but this is a great opportunity for people to take advantage of cheap/quick vacations to many beautiful US destinations, visit family or see some outdoor sites you may never get another chance at. I own no airline or hotel stock directly and have no financial gain by you taking a trip, just asking some of you to take a peak at this once regular activity you took part in and look to help our economy and many fellow small businesses located at the destination of your choice. For the second time flying post-COVID, I feel it is safe and have reviewed many articles and protocols from airlines that the risk of infection is low. Are you ready?
